It’s Already Doubled in 2021, and This Healthcare Juggernaut Is Just Getting

Skin cancer detection company Dermtech (NASDAQ:DMTK) has seen a spree of good news lately. The company is reimagining the way skin cancer is detected, using stickers rather than scalpels to remove cells for testing. With several factors pushing the stock to double so far this year, its ascent may be just beginning.

The clinical data for its melanoma detection sticker, which is called the Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA), is promising, with the sticker demonstrating superiority to a traditional scalpel-wielding biopsy. Just how much better is it? Standard biopsies miss about 17% of melanoma cases; the PLA misses just 1%. It’s also more efficient — for every 25 biopsies performed, only one melanoma will be found, compared with one melanoma for every 2.7 PLA tests. All of this is a big win for patients — but the positive news for this small cap doesn’t stop there.

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Last year was a good one …

The PLA test for melanoma has already found its way into National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines. NCCN is a nonprofit alliance of 30 premier cancer centers throughout the United States that develops clinical practice guidelines in oncology with a particular focus on complex, aggressive, or uncommon cancers. NCCN’s guidelines suggest that non-invasive testing that evaluates a patient’s DNA for damage and signs of cancer — such as the PLA test — can help guide a doctor’s decision on whether to perform a biopsy.

Dermtech opened 2020 with a big win in February, when Medicare decided to cover PLA for melanoma. This was crucial, as Medicare insures about half of the biopsy market according to Dermtech’s most recent investor presentation. Since then, insurance companies have taken notice, and Dermtech has racked up agreements with Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas (and its approximately 6 million covered members), Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Illinois (8.1 million members), and Blue Shield of California (3.7 million members).

Additionally, Geisinger Health Plans in Pennsylvania issued a statement acknowledging positive benefit for PLA, which suggests Geisinger would cover the test for its 580,000 members. Such commercial insurance carrier agreements are crucial because they tend to mean higher reimbursement rates for Dermtech and for clinicians performing the procedure — meaning investors can likely expect increased future profit margins as commercial insurance pays for a higher percentage of tests performed.

… and this year looks even better

Dermtech is clearly growing; in Q4 2020, the number of tests it was able to bill for hit approximately 8,300, a 69% increase over the same period a year ago and a 24% sequential increase from Q3. Test revenue of $1.2 million marked a 220% increase over Q3 2019 and a 90% sequential increase over Q2 2020. In hopes of expanding the company’s relatively small base quickly, management is exploring partnerships on a PLA home collection kit with various entities — including telemedicine providers. 

This may prove fruitful, as according to medical staffing and consulting firm Merritt Hawkins, the average wait time to see a dermatologist in a metro area has steadily increased since 2009 to an average of about 32 days. This number is likely even higher in more rural communities with fewer dermatology providers. The ease of a sticker-based process, which can be done at a primary care office or via telemedicine, may enhance access to care, increase early detection, and save lives.

In addition to PLA’s growth potential, Dermtech has other shots on goal. When its Luminate sticker test is approved — currently predicted for the first half of 2022 — the company will seek to market it directly to consumers, avoiding the need for insurance reimbursement. Luminate is an at-home test that quantifies UV damage at the molecular level in skin that appears normal to the eye. Should the test be approved, its results could help…